Will Terrorists Go Nuclear
Will Terrorists Go Nuclear (2008, Prometheus Books)Seven years after the September 11 terrorist attacks, Americans continue to be concerned that far worse is yet to come.
According to a Harris Poll, two out of five Americans think it likely that terrorists will detonate a nuclear bomb in an American city within five years. Astonishingly, this is far more than believed a nuclear war was likely even during the the Cold War.
This level of apprehension, although clearly disconnected from everyday behavior, reflects terrorist success in creating an atmosphere of fear that causes the target audience — in this case the American people — to exaggerate the capabilities of terrorists and the threat they pose.
That is exactly how terrorism works.
But that pervasive dread also reflects a relentless message of fear from Washington, amplified by increasingly sensationalist news media, to an always anxious audience. Such terror can serve political agendas, but is a poor platform for sensible policy.
Some assert that nuclear terrorism is inevitable — not a matter of “if” but “when.” Others estimate the odds at one in a million. These estimates reflect perceptions — they are not predictions. Terrorists might some day detonate a nuclear bomb, but there is no inexorable progression from conventional truck bombs to atomic bombs.
“Nuclear terrorism” and “nuclear terror” are different phenomena. Nuclear terrorism is about the threat that terrorists will acquire and use nuclear weapons, while nuclear terror is about the anticipation of that event.
Nuclear terrorism is about terrorists’ capabilities, while nuclear terror is about our imagination.
The history of nuclear terrorism can be quickly summarized: there hasn’t been any — although many would hasten to add “yet.” But nuclear terror is real, and is deeply embedded in our popular culture and policymaking circles.
Of course, we have to take the terrible possibility of nuclear terrorism seriously. The successful detonation of even a low-yield nuclear device could result in death and destruction many times greater than that of the Sept. 11 attacks. But America’s future should not be framed by fear.